Lebanon conflict deepens amid fragile ceasefire

Lebanon has once again been drawn into escalating conflict, reviving deep political and security challenges that remain unresolved despite years of fragile ceasefires and diplomatic efforts.

During a meeting last August at the presidential palace in Beirut, Joseph Aoun expressed cautious optimism about stabilising the country after a devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel. A former army chief, he had pledged to address one of Lebanon’s most complex issues: the group’s weapons.

At the time, a ceasefire reached in November 2024 had reduced large-scale fighting. However, Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah-linked sites continued almost daily, and tensions never fully subsided.

Fragile ceasefire collapses

The situation worsened after the killing of Ali Khamenei during a US-Israeli strike on Tehran earlier this year. In response, Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, prompting a strong military reaction, including air strikes and a renewed ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

Attempts by President Aoun to open direct talks with Israel marked a significant shift, given the absence of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries. But these efforts initially went unanswered. Only recently, following renewed regional tensions and a surge in violence that killed hundreds in a single day, have talks been scheduled in Washington.

Hezbollah’s entrenched role

Founded in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon, Hezbollah has evolved into the country’s most powerful force. Backed by Iran, it operates not only as a militia but also as a political party and social network, providing services in areas where the state has limited reach.

Although agreements like the Taif Agreement and UN Resolution 1701 called for the disarmament of militias, Hezbollah retained its arsenal, positioning itself as a resistance movement against Israel.

Today, the group continues to control key مناطق such as southern Lebanon, parts of Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley. Its leadership has firmly rejected any nationwide disarmament.

A government with limited options

President Aoun has promoted the principle of a “state monopoly on arms,” but he has acknowledged that forcibly disarming Hezbollah could trigger internal conflict. Lebanon’s army lacks both the capacity and political backing to confront the group directly.

Analysts note that the country’s sectarian divisions complicate any solution. While many Lebanese support limiting weapons to the national army, significant opposition exists within the Shia community, where Hezbollah maintains strong influence.

Experts argue that Lebanon’s government has little leverage in negotiations, as it cannot guarantee Hezbollah’s compliance. This weakens its position in any potential peace talks with Israel.

Regional dynamics and uncertainty

Hezbollah is part of Iran’s broader regional alliance, often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes groups such as Hamas and the Houthis. Strategic decisions affecting Hezbollah are widely believed to be influenced by Tehran rather than Beirut.

Despite suffering setbacks in previous conflicts, Hezbollah has demonstrated an ability to rebuild its military strength, with support from Iran’s elite forces.

Meanwhile, Israeli plans to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon have raised fears of prolonged occupation, further reinforcing Hezbollah’s argument for maintaining its weapons.

Human cost and ongoing crisis

The impact on civilians has been severe. More than 1.2 million people have been displaced since the latest escalation, and over 2,000 deaths have been reported in recent weeks alone, according to Lebanese authorities.

In Beirut and other مناطق, residents describe living under constant threat. Entire neighbourhoods have been damaged, and trust between communities is deteriorating amid rising tensions.

For many Lebanese, the conflict feels endless. Years of instability, combined with economic hardship and political paralysis, have left the population exhausted and uncertain about the future.

As diplomatic efforts resume, the central question remains unresolved: whether Lebanon can achieve lasting peace without addressing Hezbollah’s role—and whether any solution is possible without wider regional change.