A pattern of unusual activity has been observed in US financial markets during the second term of Donald Trump. According to an analysis by the BBC, large trading volumes have repeatedly appeared shortly before major public announcements by the president.
The findings highlight spikes in trading activity—sometimes just minutes before statements are released—particularly in oil and stock markets. Some analysts suggest these patterns resemble insider trading, where decisions are made based on non-public information. Others argue that experienced traders may simply be anticipating the president’s actions more effectively.
One notable case occurred on March 9, 2026. Significant bets were placed on falling oil prices before an interview revealed that the conflict with Iran could be nearing an end. Once the information became public, oil prices dropped sharply, generating substantial profits for those who had taken early positions.
A similar situation unfolded on March 23, when signs of easing tensions between Washington and Tehran emerged. Again, unusually high trading volumes were recorded ahead of the announcement, followed by a decline in oil prices and a rise in stock markets.
Irregularities were also seen in equity markets. In April 2025, before the announcement of a temporary pause on tariffs, investors placed large bets on a market rebound. When the policy shift was confirmed, stock indices surged dramatically, delivering major gains to those investors.
Meanwhile, online prediction platforms have also come under scrutiny. On Polymarket, some users made significant profits by betting on geopolitical events, including the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and potential US military actions involving Iran.
These developments are drawing attention from regulators. Although agencies such as the SEC and CFTC have not confirmed formal investigations, they continue to stress a zero-tolerance approach to market abuse.
However, proving insider trading remains difficult. Legal experts point out that without clear evidence linking trades to privileged information sources, enforcement actions are challenging—even when market behavior appears suspicious.
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