Nigeria’s economy is on a clear recovery path after years of stagnation, with a new report by Quartus Economics indicating that key indicators have recorded their strongest improvement in more than a decade. The study, obtained by The Nation, concludes that “Nigeria is rising” and that the economy is back on track, even though growth still needs to be faster and more broad based.
According to the report, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by a cumulative 8.34 percent between 2024 and 2025, the highest two year expansion in over ten years. This pace also outperformed population growth, which was estimated at less than 4.4 percent over the same period, reversing earlier years when the population was growing faster than the economy.
Between 2020 and 2023, GDP growth averaged just 0.97 percent, while the population increased by about 8.78 percent, leading to a sharp drop in living standards. Quartus Economics estimated that GDP per capita shrank by 21 percent during those years but then rose by 19.5 percent in 2025 alone as the recovery took hold.
In dollar terms, Nigeria’s GDP climbed from 252 billion dollars in 2024, after a rebasing exercise, to 307.5 billion dollars in 2025, representing an increase of about 22 percent. Per capita GDP also rose by 19.5 percent to 1,295 dollars within the same period, reflecting both higher output and slower population growth.
The report highlighted Nigeria’s improving position within Sub Saharan Africa. It noted that the country’s share of the region’s total GDP rose to 14.4 percent in 2025, up from about 13 percent in 2024, while per capita income climbed to 72 percent of the regional average, from 67 percent the previous year.
Quartus Economics said Nigeria’s standing has also improved when compared with a basket of emerging markets and major African economies, pointing to better relative performance after several difficult years. However, it warned that the gains must be consolidated and extended so that growth becomes more inclusive and reaches more sectors and households.
Reacting to the findings, the Presidency said the positive trend reflects the impact of bold reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu since he assumed office. Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Temitope Ajayi, said policy decisions across key sectors have repositioned the economy for sustainable expansion.
Ajayi argued that all the major macroeconomic indicators that were “in red” before Tinubu took office are now turning positive. He pointed to improved fiscal conditions, rising investor confidence and new inflows into the real sector as signs that the reforms are working.
According to him, the oil sector alone has attracted over 8 billion dollars in new investment commitments from international oil companies. Manufacturing activities are also said to be picking up, with Nigeria positioning itself as a refining hub for petroleum products in Africa.
Despite the upbeat numbers, the Quartus report emphasised that growth still needs to be faster and more widely shared across the population. It urged policymakers to build on the current momentum in 2026 so that the economy can “pay its dues and yield its own harvest” in terms of jobs, poverty reduction and improved living standards.
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