Global oil prices climbed sharply after Iran intensified strikes across the Middle East, raising fears of disruption to energy supplies.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped 10% on Monday to briefly exceed $82 per barrel following reports that at least three vessels were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Natural gas prices also surged by up to 25% amid concerns about supply constraints.
Iran warned commercial vessels against passing through the strategic waterway, through which roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments transit. Shipping activity at the entrance to the strait has slowed dramatically, with analysts cautioning that a prolonged disruption could drive energy prices significantly higher.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 opened nearly 1% lower, with airline shares hit by widespread airspace closures across the Middle East. European markets experienced sharper losses: France’s CAC 40 fell 1.6%, while Germany’s DAX declined 1.7%.
Gold prices, often seen as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical instability, rose 2.3% to $5,395.99 per ounce.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported that two vessels had been struck and that an “unknown projectile” exploded near a third ship. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed that three UK- and US-linked tankers had been hit, though neither government has confirmed the claim.
After the initial spike, Brent crude eased back to around $79 per barrel, while US-traded crude remained up roughly 7.6% at $72.20.
Energy analysts say markets are not yet in panic mode. Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee noted that oil production and core transport infrastructure have not been primary targets so far, providing some reassurance. However, traders remain focused on whether safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will resume.
Some experts warn that if the conflict persists and the strait remains effectively closed, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel. Such increases would likely feed into higher inflation and complicate central bank policy decisions.
Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based Qamar Energy, said traders are reacting rapidly to developments but stressed that oil prices remain below levels seen two years ago.
On Sunday, the OPEC+ group agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day to offset potential supply shortages. However, several analysts questioned whether this would be sufficient if the disruption continues.
Industry groups are also warning of consumer impact. Edmund King, president of the AA, said sustained turmoil could push up global petrol prices. Meanwhile, Subitha Subramaniam of Sarasin & Partners cautioned that prolonged high energy costs could spill over into food, agriculture, and industrial goods, reigniting inflationary pressures.
In the UK, inflation has been easing, allowing the Bank of England to cut interest rates recently. However, economists suggest policymakers may pause further reductions if energy-driven inflation risks intensify.
Shipping activity reflects growing caution. Around 150 tankers are reportedly anchored outside the Strait of Hormuz, with only a limited number of vessels—primarily Iranian and Chinese—transiting the route. Danish shipping giant Maersk announced it would suspend sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
Analysts warn that the duration of the disruption will determine whether the situation evolves into a broader energy crisis or stabilises once maritime traffic resumes.
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