The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has projected that Africa could become the world’s fourth largest economy by 2050 if it fully harnesses its population growth, resources, and trade potential.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview with CNN that trading within Africa remains far more expensive than with other regions, with intra-continental trade costs estimated to be about 20 percent higher.
“It costs 20 percent more for us to trade with each other on the continent than with others externally,” she said, linking this to poor infrastructure, inefficient border management, and high transport costs.
Despite these challenges, Okonjo-Iweala said Africa’s economic outlook remains promising. “The African continent has a lot of resources and a lot of things going for it. But there are also many challenges,” she noted.
WTO data shows that only 18 percent of Africa’s exports remain within the continent, compared to 60 percent in Asia and 70 percent in Europe. Okonjo-Iweala said this gap must be closed for Africa to realise its economic ambitions.
She identified barriers such as fragmented customs systems, inconsistent tariffs, and weak industrial links that make it cheaper for businesses to trade with other continents than with neighbouring countries.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021 to create a unified market across 54 countries, aims to address these challenges. However, progress has been slow, with few nations ratifying key protocols.
The WTO believes that a fully implemented AfCFTA could boost intra-African trade by more than 50 percent by 2030. “Africa is an exciting continent, in spite of the challenges,” Okonjo-Iweala said, highlighting growing sectors like renewable energy, technology, and manufacturing.
Africa holds about 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves, including lithium and cobalt—key materials for clean-energy technologies. Yet, limited local processing capacity means most of these are exported as raw materials. “We need to move up the value chain,” she stressed.
External pressures such as geopolitical conflicts and climate change have also strained Africa’s supply chains. The Russia-Ukraine war has raised food and fertiliser prices, while droughts and floods continue to affect trade routes.
Okonjo-Iweala said ongoing WTO reforms aim to make global trade fairer for smaller economies. Regional efforts like the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System are also expected to cut transaction costs and reduce reliance on foreign currencies.
“Africa is not a monolith; each country has its strengths,” she said, citing Rwanda’s technology sector and Morocco’s automotive industry as examples of progress.
She expressed confidence that with coordinated policies, stronger infrastructure, and effective trade integration, Africa could double its economic growth and play a central role in global trade by 2050.
“The challenges are real, but so is the opportunity,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
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