Thailand votes amid deep divide between reformists and conservatives

Thailand has voted in an early general election triggered by the collapse of successive coalition governments, a cycle of instability that has produced three prime ministers in just three years.

As in the 2023 election, the contest has largely centred on a familiar divide: reformists calling for sweeping political change versus conservative forces determined to preserve the existing power structure. On one side is the People’s Party, which has led opinion polls and advocates deep reforms. On the other is incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnavirakul, heading the conservative Bhumjaithai (“Thai Pride”) Party.

Polling stations closed nationwide on Sunday, with official results expected around 22:00 local time (15:00 GMT). No single party is expected to secure an outright parliamentary majority.

Reformists versus the establishment

The key question looming over the election is whether the People’s Party can translate its popularity into enough seats to overcome resistance from Thailand’s powerful unelected institutions. When reformist forces won the last election in 2023, the military-appointed senate blocked them from forming a government, and the constitutional court later dissolved the party. Similar interventions have repeatedly sidelined political movements seen as challenging the status quo.

Anutin Charnavirakul has emerged as the standard-bearer of conservative politics. Under his leadership, Bhumjaithai has grown from a small provincial party into a major national force. He has capitalised on patriotic sentiment following two brief border clashes with Cambodia last year, while pledging to protect traditional institutions such as the monarchy and the military.

Pheu Thai struggles to regain ground

A third major contender is Pheu Thai (“For Thais”), linked to the influential Shinawatra family. Once dominant in Thai politics through populist policies, the party has struggled to maintain its appeal. Its most recent coalition government was criticised for its handling of tensions with Cambodia, and its patriarch, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was jailed.

In a bid to regain voter support, Pheu Thai has promised generous subsidies and even a national prize draw aimed at creating nine new millionaires in Thai baht every day. Similar cash-based pledges have also featured in Bhumjaithai’s campaign.

Economic concerns drive voter frustration

Voters have gone to the polls amid growing economic anxiety. Thailand’s once-dynamic economy has slowed sharply, weighed down by political uncertainty and a lack of structural reform, prompting concerns among foreign investors. Rising living costs and fears of industrial relocation to neighbouring countries such as Vietnam have dominated public debate.

“I want the economy to improve and I don’t want big factories to move to our neighbouring countries,” civil servant Phananya Bunthong told the BBC.

The People’s Party, led by Nattaphong Ruengpanyawut, has campaigned on ambitious reforms, including curbing the power of large conglomerates and the military, reducing bureaucracy, and modernising the education system. However, Thailand’s recent history suggests that electoral success alone may not guarantee the right to govern.

Democracy under constraint

Two previous incarnations of the People’s Party were dissolved by the courts, with their leaders banned from politics. Pheu Thai has faced similar treatment, with five of its prime ministers removed by court rulings since 2008 and two earlier versions of the party disbanded.

If the People’s Party exceeds the 151 seats it won in 2023, blocking it from forming a government could prove politically difficult, despite strong opposition from conservative and royalist circles. Analysts expect that further judicial or institutional intervention could still be used to weaken the party if it threatens entrenched interests.

Conversely, if Anutin and Bhumjaithai can match or surpass the reformists’ seat count, the backing of the conservative establishment would likely ensure his continuation as prime minister.

Alongside the election, voters are also participating in a referendum on whether to reform the 2017 constitution, drafted under military rule. Critics argue that it grants excessive power to unelected bodies, particularly the senate, constraining democratic governance.

“I want change. I don’t want things to stay the same,” said 28-year-old voter Kittitat Daengkongkho.

Ultimately, Thai voters were presented with a stark choice: push for sweeping political change, or accept the continuation of a system shaped by powerful unelected forces.