The Federal Government is assessing its economic and diplomatic options as the war involving Iran, the United States and Israel begins to hit Nigerians through higher fuel prices and fresh pressure on the economy.
Officials are closely tracking developments in the Middle East, where attacks on oil facilities, shipping disruptions and tensions around strategic waterways have driven up global crude prices. The conflict has already pushed Brent crude well above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark, raising both risks and opportunities for Africa’s largest oil producer.
On the domestic front, petrol prices have crossed or neared N1,000 per litre in many locations, with queues reappearing at filling stations across parts of the country. Marketers and analysts link the spike to higher international crude and freight costs, as well as supply constraints and the impact of the conflict on global refinery output and shipping routes.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has explained that the war has worsened an existing global shortage of petroleum products, forcing up crude and freight prices and increasing its own cost of sourcing crude oil, including Nigerian grades that now trade above Brent. The refinery said it has absorbed part of the extra cost to stabilise local supply but warned that sustained global price increases will continue to feed into domestic pump prices.
Government economic managers are said to be reviewing several response options, including how to manage the short term pain of higher fuel and energy costs while taking advantage of higher crude export earnings. Experts have advised the administration to use any revenue windfall to close fiscal gaps, reduce debt pressures and strengthen social support for vulnerable households facing rising living costs.
Security and foreign policy agencies are also monitoring the war’s wider implications for global trade, shipping routes and Nigeria’s strategic interests. With tensions still high, there are concerns that a prolonged conflict could fuel more inflation, worsen the cost of living crisis and complicate the government’s ongoing economic reforms.
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