Cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by about 95 percent since the Middle East war erupted with US Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. From March 1 to the early hours of March 24, only 149 commodity carrier crossings were recorded in the 167 kilometre long waterway.
Data from analytics firm Kpler shows that 94 of these crossings were by oil and gas tankers, with around 61 percent of them loaded and more than two thirds sailing eastwards out of the strait. On Monday, Iran flagged tankers Artman and Kiazand, along with US sanctioned vessel Lenore, were among the few ships to pass through.
The Jasmin tanker sailed in the opposite direction, heading towards an Iranian port after departing Karachi. A Chinese owned container ship, Newvoyager, also transited the strait after reportedly making a payment to Iranian authorities, although the amount and method could not be independently confirmed.
Lloyd’s List editor Richard Meade said political pragmatism has led to a small increase in state negotiated transits in recent days, but warned this does not mean the security situation has improved. He stressed that Iran remains highly capable of damaging ships using the route.
Many of the recent crossings have used a Tehran approved northern corridor around Larak Island, close to the Iranian coast. Lloyd’s List reported that more than 20 ships have taken this so called corridor, with most of them Greek owned and others owned in India, Pakistan and Syria.
The journal noted that traffic is being diverted into Iranian territorial waters in what has been dubbed the “Tehran Toll Booth”. It said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is believed to be checking vessel details and in some cases collecting passage fees from ships using the route.
Analysts say most vessels currently using the strait are Iranian, Greek or Chinese owned or flagged. Iran accounts for the largest share of ships, followed by Greek and Chinese carriers, reflecting Iran’s continued control over the chokepoint and its own oil exports.
An AFP analysis of passage data indicates that more than 40 percent of ships transiting the strait since the war began are under US, EU or UK sanctions. Among oil and gas tankers alone, 57 percent fall into this sanctioned category, many of them part of a so called shadow fleet.
JPMorgan commodities analysts report that about 98 percent of observable oil traffic through the strait in early March was Iranian, averaging 1.3 million barrels per day. Most of this oil is heading to Asia, especially China, as Europe bound liquefied natural gas cargoes are diverted eastward due to tight supply and rising spot prices.
MarineTraffic data shows that around 11 LNG tankers originally destined for Europe have changed course to Asia since March 3. In normal times, about one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
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