Nigeria’s crude oil export earnings fell by N3.18 trillion in H1 2025, even as production rose by nearly 13 per cent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Crude exports totalled N24.92tn between January and June 2025, down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024 — an 11.3% year-on-year decline.
By contrast, crude output climbed to 266.9m barrels in H1 2025, up from 236.7m barrels in H1 2024, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed.
Quarter-by-quarter breakdown
- Q1 2025: Crude exports N12.96tn vs N15.49tn in Q1 2024 (-16.3%).
- Q2 2025: Crude exports N11.97tn vs N12.61tn in Q2 2024 (-5.1%).
Crude’s share of total exports fell sharply:
- From 80.8% in Q1 2024 to 62.9% in Q1 2025.
- From 71.2% in Q2 2024 to 52.6% in Q2 2025.
Non-crude exports surge
Non-crude exports more than doubled to N18.43tn in H1 2025, compared with N8.79tn in H1 2024 — a 109.6% increase.
Overall trade expanded to N43.35tn (+17.5%), while imports rose by just 6.9% to N30.71tn. This lifted Nigeria’s trade surplus by 54.6% to N12.64tn.
Why the paradox?
Analysts point to weaker global oil prices, increased local absorption, and the government’s naira-for-crude supply to the Dangote Refinery as reasons export earnings fell despite higher output.
In March 2025, oil prices slipped below the government’s $75 per barrel benchmark, raising concerns over budget execution. NNPCL documents also showed the government sold crude worth N219.38bn to Dangote Refinery in the first four months of 2025.
Progress on losses
NUPRC said crude theft and losses fell by 50.2% between January and July 2025, to just 2.04m barrels, the lowest level since 2009. Losses are down 94.6% from the record 37.6m barrels lost in 2021.
Officials credited improved security, stricter metering, and reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (2021).
Expert views
Economists warn that while falling oil prices may ease fuel costs, they threaten government revenue.
- Prof. Dayo Ayoade (LASU): “If oil prices go down and persist, budget implementation will be very difficult.”
- Prof. Adeola Adenikinju (UI): “It’s a two-edged sword — good for refined product prices, but bad for revenue.”
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