On a dusty patch of land near the Irrawaddy River, retired Lieutenant-General Tayza Kyaw addresses a small crowd with promises of better days ahead. Standing as a candidate of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military-backed party, he is contesting a seat in Aungmyaythazan, a constituency in Mandalay.
Around 300 to 400 people attend the rally, many wearing party-branded hats and holding flags handed out by organisers. As the afternoon heat intensifies, attention fades. Some people drift off, while children weave between rows of plastic chairs. Several families present are still struggling after the powerful earthquake that struck Mandalay and surrounding areas in March, and many appear more hopeful of receiving aid than inspired by campaign speeches. Once the event ends, the crowd quickly disperses.
Myanmar is preparing to hold its first election since the military seized power in a coup nearly five years ago, a takeover that plunged the country into a prolonged and deadly civil war. The vote, scheduled to take place in phases over a month, has been repeatedly postponed and is widely criticised as lacking credibility.
The country’s most popular political force, the National League for Democracy (NLD), has been dissolved, while its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains detained at an undisclosed location. Large areas of the country, particularly those affected by ongoing fighting, will not be able to participate at all. Even in areas where voting is planned, the process is overshadowed by intimidation and fear.
In Mandalay, party officials discouraged conversations between rally attendees and journalists, warning that people might say something “wrong.” The heavy presence of plain-clothes intelligence officers reinforced this caution. In an environment where even online criticism of the election is criminalised, many supporters of the ruling party remain wary of speaking freely.
The same tension is evident across the city. At markets and on street corners, residents avoid discussing the vote. One woman, who agreed to speak only anonymously, described the election as meaningless. She spoke of widespread fear, loss of freedom and the toll of years of violence, adding that she would not vote, despite knowing the risks of abstention.
In July, the authorities introduced a new law criminalising actions deemed to undermine the electoral process, including calls for boycotts. Several activists have since been arrested or sentenced to lengthy prison terms for opposing the vote, further reinforcing a climate of repression.
Despite this, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing appears confident that the election will provide a degree of legitimacy to his rule. Backed diplomatically by China and supported by improved military capacity, the regime hopes the poll will mark a turning point. With the NLD excluded, the USDP is expected to dominate, despite its poor showing in the last free election in 2020.
Away from the city centre, the scars of conflict remain stark. Villages around Mandalay are divided between military forces and resistance groups, making travel dangerous and elections impossible in many areas. Local officials acknowledge that communities are deeply polarised, with little willingness on either side to compromise.
Residents say this election bears little resemblance to the vibrant polls of 2020. Campaign activity is muted, competition is limited, and enthusiasm is low. Yet fear, pressure and fatigue mean many people are still likely to turn up at polling stations.
As one woman in Mandalay put it, people may vote, but without conviction, seeing the process not as a choice, but as an obligation in uncertain times.
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