Nigeria’s crude oil imports surged by 26.5% in the first half of 2025, reaching 5,665,602 metric tons, compared to 4,478,413 metric tons in the same period of 2024, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA).
The rise has been largely attributed to the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has been sourcing crude oil from countries including the United States, Brazil, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea.
Financial Vanguard’s quarterly analysis shows a mixed trend:
- Q1 2025: Imports dropped to 2,400,553 MT, down 30% from Q1 2024 (3,037,209 MT).
- Q2 2025: Imports spiked to 3,265,099 MT, a 126% increase compared to Q2 2024 (1,441,204 MT).
The Dangote Refinery, which began refining diesel and aviation fuel in January 2024, has since become a key player in both domestic and global energy trade, exporting petroleum products while importing crude to sustain operations.
Decline in Petrol Exports
Despite increased refinery activity, Nigeria exported 998,500 MT of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in H1 2025 — a 7.45% decline compared to 1,078,912 MT in H1 2024.
Domestic Crude Shortfall
Reports indicate that Nigeria’s planned output of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd), including condensates, fell short, averaging 1.6–1.7 million bpd between January and July 2025. Only 67.6 million barrels were delivered to local refiners between January and August, leaving Dangote reliant on foreign crude.
Forward Contracts and IOC Constraints
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), explained that much of Nigeria’s crude is tied up in forward sales agreements and joint ventures with International Oil Companies (IOCs), limiting local supply.
“Over time, a significant portion of our crude has been sold through forward contracts, leaving limited availability for local refiners. These are the realities Dangote Refinery is facing,” Yusuf noted.
Boost to Shipping and Revenue
Maritime consultant Oluwabunmi Ogunjimi highlighted the refinery’s positive impact on the shipping sector and government revenue.
“Dangote is now one of the major revenue earners for NPA because of the massive vessels calling at Nigerian waters. These Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) pay huge ship dues, pilotage, and towage fees,” he said.
The refinery operates through Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) systems, allowing offshore crude delivery and product export. Ogunjimi stressed that this has transformed Nigeria’s shipping profile, boosting its tonnage ranking with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).
Not Unusual for Oil Producers
Mr. Clement Isong, CEO of the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), said crude importation is common even among top oil producers.
“Dangote sources part of its crude locally, but imports are necessary to meet demand. This is not unusual in global oil markets,” Isong said.
Prospects for Growth
According to Mazi Colman Obasi, President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association, boosting output will take time, though the government’s “Project 1 Million Barrels” aims to ramp production to 2.5 million bpd in the medium term.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) noted that ongoing upstream projects, along with synergy between local refineries and producers, are laying the groundwork for a more self-reliant petroleum sector.
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