Pollster and Managing Editor of the Daily Dispatch, Ben Ephson, has explained why his prediction for the 2024 general election fell short. Speaking on Joy Prime, he highlighted voter apathy among New Patriotic Party (NPP) members as the key reason for his miscalculation.
Ephson emphasized the challenge of detecting apathy in pre-election polls, citing a sharp decline in NPP voter turnout, especially in strongholds like the Ashanti Region, where votes dropped by over 1.2 million compared to 2020.
Drawing parallels with the 2016 U.S. election, he noted that apathy, similar to that seen among Black voters during Hillary Clinton’s campaign, is a critical but hard-to-measure factor in polling.
Reflecting on his career, he stated, “Out of eight polls in 23 years, I’ve missed two. Both times, apathy was the unknown variable.”
Ephson concluded that had the remaining NPP voters turned out, the party could have secured a different outcome, underscoring the complexities of polling and its limitations.
