Denmark is under pressure to defend Greenland from growing United States interest, even as the Arctic territory moves steadily towards full independence. The issue will be high on the agenda when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Danish and Greenlandic leaders next week.
Greenland has enjoyed greater autonomy since 1979 and a 2009 agreement recognises the right of its people to choose independence. All major parties on the island support eventual statehood, and the largest opposition party now wants to bypass Copenhagen and open direct talks with Washington.
Analysts say President Donald Trump’s threat to take control of Greenland, by purchase or force, has triggered strong solidarity for Denmark in Europe. But it has also exposed a paradox, as Denmark spends diplomatic capital to protect a territory whose long term goal is to one day walk away.
Greenland’s position between Europe and North America gives Denmark strategic weight inside NATO and hosts a key US missile defence site. If Greenland becomes independent or cuts its own deal with Washington, Denmark risks losing much of its geopolitical relevance in the Arctic.
Copenhagen sends about 4.3 billion Danish crowns in annual grants to Greenland and also covers police, justice and defence, taking total yearly support to just under 1 billion dollars. On top of that, Denmark has announced a 42 billion crown Arctic defence package after US criticism of its military posture in the region.
Some experts warn that Denmark is going into “patriotic overdrive” and avoiding hard questions about how long it can sustain this level of commitment. Others argue the relationship goes beyond money, rooted in long shared history, family ties, culture and legal responsibilities under international law.
European allies see wider stakes in the confrontation. They fear that if a major power can carve off Greenland from Denmark, it could encourage similar attempts elsewhere and weaken the post 1945 norms on sovereignty and borders.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has insisted that national borders and state sovereignty must be respected, saying Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders and cannot be annexed. She has also warned that a US attack on a NATO ally would effectively break the alliance and the security it has provided since World War Two.
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