Key Highlights
- Fitch Ratings upgraded Ghana’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from “Restricted Default” to “B–”, with a Stable outlook, citing normalized relations with external creditors.
- The agency expects Ghana to complete its external debt restructuring by end‑2025, following its $13.1 billion Eurobond restructuring in October 2024.
1. What Drove the Upgrade
- Successful stabilization of relations with most commercial and bilateral creditors—including a $5.1 billion bilateral deal sealed in January 2025.
- Ghana’s fiscal discipline under Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has driven a decline in public debt-to-GDP from ~93% in 2022 to a projected 60% in 2025–26.
2. Macroeconomic Improvements Underlined
- Inflation fell from over 50% in early 2023 to 18.4% in May 2025, and is forecasted to decline further to around 15% by year-end, and 10% by 2026.
- Rationalization of the Exchange Rate and firming of the Ghana cedi have supported price stability .
- Gross international reserves reached $6.8 billion, providing over three months of import cover .
3. What a “B–” Rating Means
- Though still classified as below investment grade, “B–” indicates low probability of further default and increased market access .
- The Stable outlook suggests Fitch sees ongoing reforms continuing—while flagging risks from fiscal slippages or external shocks .
4. Government Response & Economic Strategy
- Finance Minister Forson called the upgrade a milestone in progress toward sustainable economic recovery .
- President Mahama has emphasized job creation and economic stimulus as part of his reform agenda .
Why It Matters
| Area | Implication |
|---|---|
| Investor Confidence | Boosts Ghana’s appeal to global investors |
| Borrowing Costs | Expected to reduce interest rates on future bond issues |
| Market Access | Opens greater access to international credit markets |
| Policy Credibility | Validates Ghana’s fiscal and monetary discipline efforts |
👀 What’s Ahead
- Debt Restructuring Completion by Q4 2025 remains critical for sustaining momentum.
- Fiscal Targets: Monitoring adherence to primary surplus goals and existing reforms.
- External Shocks: Vigilance on commodity prices (gold, cocoa), global rate trends, and political stability.
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